本網(wǎng)編譯：印度棉花出口將增多

India’s Cotton Shipments to Rebound as ‘Worst Over’
By Thomas Kutty Abraham
March 18 (Bloomberg) -- Cotton sales from India, the world’s second-biggest grower and exporter, may rebound starting June as demand for textiles revives and a weak currency makes shipments attractive, the nation’s biggest buyer of the fiber said.
Exports may total 5 million bales by September, said Subhash Grover, managing director of the Cotton Corp. of India. Shipments slumped to 800,000 bales of 170 kilogram each in September-March period from 6 million bales a year earlier, he said.
“The worst is over for the textiles sector,” Grover said in a telephone interview in Mumbai today. “Private textile mills are buying as demand for cotton yarn and garments seem to be picking up in India and globally.”
Increased supplies from the South Asian nation may weigh on cotton prices that have fallen 43 percent in the past year in New York amid concern the global slowdown will slash demand for the commodity. Global demand will total 111.1 million bales in the year ending July, down 9.5 percent from last season, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on March 11.
Cotton futures for May delivery rose as much as 0.5 percent to 43.07 cents a pound on in after-hours electronic trading on ICE Futures U.S. in New York. Cotton has climbed 3.2 percent so far this month.
“Global production is less than last year and consumption seems to have picked up in the past 20 days or so,” Grover said. “Prices may rise to such a level in the lean season that Indian exports will become feasible.”
Global output will fall to 108.65 million bales from 109.51 million bales projected in February because of smaller crops in China and Pakistan, according to the USDA. Production in the previous season was estimated to be 120.55 million bales.
Weak Rupee
A drop in India’s rupee may boost export prospects in the coming months, Grover said. The currency reached a record low on March 3 and has a fifth of its value in the past year as concern about a deepening global recession prompted investors to pull out funds from emerging markets in favor of safer bets.
“Rupee is weakening day by day and if international cotton prices go up by 2 to 3 cents in the next two months, then larger exports will take place,” Grover said.
India’s cotton production may be slightly’ more than the 29 million bales estimated by the nation’s Cotton Advisory Board last month, Grover said. Farmers have sold 25.5 million bales of cotton since the cotton season that began on Oct. 1, he said.
Cotton Corp. may purchase 9.5 million bales by September from farmers at the government-guaranteed prices and plans to sell to mills and exporters, Grover said. It has sold 4.7 million bales already.

                                                                                                 印度棉花出口將增多
作者：托馬斯亞伯拉罕庫蒂
      3月18日（彭博）——印度是上棉花的第二大生產(chǎn)國和出口國。印度大的棉花買家說，印度的棉花銷售可能會(huì)在6月份回彈，因?yàn)榧徔椥袠I(yè)復(fù)蘇，貨幣市場疲軟將會(huì)刺激棉花出貨量的增加。
      蘇巴格羅弗，印度棉花公司的執(zhí)行董事表示，今年9月的棉花出口總額將達(dá)到500萬包。去年9月到今年3月的棉花出口額下滑至80萬包（每包170公斤），而一年前的數(shù)據(jù)是600萬包。
       “紡織行業(yè)壞的時(shí)期已經(jīng)過去，” 格羅弗今天在孟買接受電話采訪時(shí)說?！耙?yàn)槊藜喓头b的需求加大，私人紡織廠在印度和范圍內(nèi)的購買力增多。”
      美國農(nóng)業(yè)部3月11日宣布，南非地區(qū)棉花供應(yīng)量的增加可能會(huì)拖跨棉花價(jià)格。紐約市場由于擔(dān)心經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩將導(dǎo)致日用品需求下降，棉花價(jià)格在過去的一年里下降了43%。到去年7月，棉花一年的需求總額達(dá)到1.111億包，比上一年度下跌9.5%。
      在ICE美國紐約期貨交易所棉花期貨市場上，棉花09年5月合約報(bào)收于每磅43.07美分，上漲0.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。棉花期貨本月以來已經(jīng)上漲了3.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
      “產(chǎn)量相比去年大幅降低，而印度過去20天的銷量有明顯好轉(zhuǎn)的趨勢，” 格羅弗說，“棉花價(jià)格可能上漲到以前淡季的水平，同時(shí)印度的出口額會(huì)有所增加?！?BR>      據(jù)美國農(nóng)業(yè)部報(bào)道，因?yàn)橹袊桶突固罐r(nóng)作物的生產(chǎn)減少，產(chǎn)量2月份預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到1.0951億包，實(shí)際可能下降到1.0865億包。上年度估計(jì)生產(chǎn)棉花1.2055億包。
      盧比貶值
      格羅弗表示，印度盧比貶值將在今后幾個(gè)月中促進(jìn)出口額增加。在3月3日，盧比達(dá)到了創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的低值。在過去的一年中，盧比貶值20%。由于經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退加劇，投資者從新興市場撤出資金，轉(zhuǎn)而投向贏利系數(shù)高的行業(yè)。
      格羅弗說： “盧比每天都在貶值，如果國際棉花價(jià)格在接下來兩個(gè)月內(nèi)上漲2至3美分，印度將取代中國，成為大的棉花出口國?！?
      全國棉花咨詢委員會(huì)上個(gè)月估計(jì)，印度的棉花產(chǎn)量可能會(huì)微超29萬包，格羅弗說。棉花的銷售旺季從10月1日開始，到目前為止，農(nóng)民已經(jīng)出售了2500萬包棉花。
      印度棉花公司將從9月開始向農(nóng)民收購棉花，以政府收購棉花的價(jià)格，估計(jì)收購950萬包，格羅弗說，目前它已售出470萬包棉花。

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